powayseller, thanks for the references. roubini's added to my favourites folder, i gawk at it all the time. just like with this site 🙂 i agree with you. i'm just making quasi-plausible assertions at the risk of being proven wrong.

to my untrained eye, it seems there are two factors – intrinsic (ARM resets) and extrinsic (job losses). don't know economics, is that micro and macro? anyway, if job losses are severe all bets are off, each segment will dip drastically. but if it's mainly about ARM resets, and rates hold steady or dip there might be a mini refi boom and the solvent people will buy more time…what do you think?