Richard A. Snyder, a broker in San Diego who is chairman of the California Association of Realtors’ long-term planning committee, said: ”We are [1990] in an adjustment period. My personal view is that we are going into a cyclical downturn that could last one-and-a-half to two years.”

Prices started falling in 1990 and didn’t stop shrinking until 1996, at least! Even though there were severe job losses when the aerospace employers shut down, and then a mild recession in 1991-92, house prices were still very sticky on the way down: the “correction” continued as far out as 1996.

This has implications for today’s down side of the cycle: don’t expect all or most of the correction to take place only in a year or two like realtor Snyder said back in 1990. It’ll be a looooooooong and painful adjustment process.