Please stay here and contribute, we need some bulls in here for balance. I think your odds based on my model of making a gain like that at the end of a 10 yr upmove, are fairly slim. Remember, the weather as I recall was also nice in the 90’s and land was also scarce, yet RE fell sharply.
If you want to debate cycles, I am the right opponent. However, your decision is made so just enjoy your home and forget about getting reinforcing opinions. I just hope you did not buy the home for appreciation reasons as that is unlikely to happen in the next 5 years from my research.
We could be wrong. I never assume my opinion is correct, as a trader I cannot be that arrogant it is too expensive. The chance of a recession is there but it is far from a certainty. Even if one occurs, people still survive and move on.
Congrats on your place, and stay with us. It is not stupid to buy a house, that is a bit extreme IMO. People are very opinionated about this subject in here for various reasons. I sold in the fall of 2005 just trying to time the market a bit, so obviously I think prices are going to come down. The magnitude is anyone’s guess, but I do not think 50% is going to happen. The last cyle the median dropped about 20% or a smidge more so something on that level is what I am expecting, maybe up to 30%, no more.
Buying a home should be for the reasons you stated except the appreciation portion, any appreciation at any time is a bonus. We have all become RE experts due to the large run up we have had, this does not mean we know anything that others do not.
