FSD, I would typically agree with your 4% appreciation. I suspect inflation near term 1-5 years will push 4% on average.

I question whether renting will track. Or more importantly, whether real renting will track. The published numbers, much like new home sales have little to do with what the real rent deal is. I also don’t know if that average rent includes privately rented homes and condos or if it is just generated by the major complexes.

Also, I don’t think the rental markets have see a substantial oversupply that is coming online. Rental availability has steadily decreased in current years due to the run up in home prices and people selling for the profit. That is about to change.

I think certain areas, such as downtown SD will see oversupply problems.