Chris I “think” I see what you are saying. I do understand your point that momentum may push pricing (be it equities or real estate) past the norms of the expected highs or lows for the cycles. Can momentum then extend or shorten the temporal aspect as well? Should I assume that you project late 2008 as a buying opportunity because the downward momentum will push this re cycle lower faster? Or do you believe that 2008 will be the beginning of the bottom that will last a year or two before it turns back up. I am assuming a “normal” time of 4 years for a re cycle to go from peak to peak on the downside. Is that your estimation? Or have I oversimplified?

On a seperate point, although there are daunting signs, I believe there will be a fall rally for a variety of reasons. However, in my novice opinion, I think it may occur and end, a little earlier then past fall rallies. I am wondering your thoughts on that. Also historically August and September are very poor months for equities, do you feel that pattern will occur this fall?