I have a slightly different view on this. As alot of folks know here by now, I study cycles a great deal. I sold my house in 2005 in the fall due to my cyclical analysis telling me that the 10 year cycle was due. So, in my mind the correction is starting right on schedule.
What studying cycles in time does, is take the parabolic price moves out of the evaluation. Regardless of how far the stock market fell during it’s correction, it did make a cycle low almost to the week when it bottomed. Alot of people tried to fade it on the way down due to absolute price judgements, and were early and got strampled.
RE in 2003 was very extended price wise, but not time wise. The same logic was used by alot of people calling an end to the run just based on price alone. They were also early. I have to admit that I also thought at that time the price extension could not last, but once I began studying the historical cycles I thought it would go itleast until 2005, and it did here in OC, SD is about 6 months ahead of us.
In summary, I think you need a confluence of price and time to identify cycles in asset classes. I require both in my trading and on average it works well.
I am sure I will be pummelled in here for this post, but my actions matched my words and this was my logic behind the decision. In my mind we have a critical time point now with dropping long term rates. Will it save the day and keep this afloat? I say no for the same reason, cycles in time and price say otherwise. Swing away I have a good chin!
