Right now is a race between declining demand and declining availability. Declining demand is decidedly winning. On the flip side oil projects are getting shut off left and right because of economic feasibility. This is a problem because we needed these projects to ease the decline of peak oil. Now we are headed for a cliff. Eventually declining availability will pull ahead. This may be a year plus. I don’t think Opec will cut enough to make a difference.

OTOH, today Bush threaten Iran again so maybe oil will get a new years surprise from Israel.