If the Fed pauses, doesn’t the story then become about the dollar. I was reading the Bank of Italy post and it looks like they are dumping their US Treasuries in anticipation of the the FED coming to the end of its tightening. Now won’t that put pressure on the long bond pushing up yields and mortgages? Right now the 10 yr is yielding about 4.9% down from about 5.22 last month so obviously traders are pricing in an economic downturn. At what point will a weakened dollar begin to impact US Treasuries? Point being this “pause’ could push mortgages higher.
