A median price drop of 37% – 50% that I project, applies to Rich’s data of historic price/income for ALL resales. I expect SFH to fall 30-45%, condos to fall 45-65%. Attached somewhere inbetween. With SFH already down 10-15% in many places, I am thinking I am too conservative.

Great post, sdrealtor. Can you find out more about how these price segments fared in the last housing bust?

I also wonder why you chose 2001 as your starting point. The housing run-up started in the late 1990’s. Wouldn’t 1998 or 1999 be a more accurate time to start a comparison?

By 2000, prices were 30% higher vs. 1999, in the Poway homes I was checking out, and 25% higher in the Escondido homes, so I wonder how your analysis would run if you started it from the *beginning* of the housing bubble, rather than the point where you think the rise stopped making sense. Because with the way you did it, somebody could easily start with 2003 or 2004, because that’s when that person thinks the runup stopped making sense. So it’s important to backdate to the *beginning* of the run-up.