partypup – I agree with your distrust of the official data, and your analysis is one that many on this board (including myself) espoused to lock in gains in real estate and/or the market. My point is that the Intrade gamblers are betting on the official data (thats what the contract is using), and thus your view of the actual economy, even if correct may not win the bet (just like shorting the market in May of 2006 would have been disasterous, even with the writing on the wall).