I must say, not only am I underwhelmed by your analysis, I am truly apalled at your misuse of data. In fact, it isn’t really data at all.

You have stated someone’s predictions as fact, and didn’t even provide the source in your original post. In fact, the guy never really says “we are down 10% in the first year.” anywhere. His prediction about the future of the market is a guess, not a data point, and they may not come true for another year, which further throws off your “analysis” which assumes prices have been coming down for a year.

Then, you based your guess on his guess by filling in numbers to match what you already believe, and then reduced his 20% number to 10%. A total, complete mess.

You also assume prices have been dropping for two years ?!?!?! Where does that one come from?

The only thing price-related in that article which is close to a fact is this comment “It’s been noted that in North SD County, prices have been flat since the middle of 2004”

Huh. I’m missing the “down 10%” part in that one.

The closest thing I have seen to facts about the North County prices is the Case-Schiller SFR Home price chart here (even though it is county wide):
Housing Market.

This shows prices are down about 2% from a peak that occurred in Nov, not a year ago. Not two years ago.

It isn’t a guess, it is data. So, maybe you should start your analysis over with 2% or 3% down in the first year and see what happens.

Your analysis is no more robust than those who have been saying “housing never goes down.” Please don’t ruin this site, which was founded on the use of good, solid data by playing off other people’s opinions as fact, and rewording their numbers to match yours.

If you have some facts on the true price reductions in North County, lets see it. Otherwise, your post is worthless.