I am waiting until the bottom, whenever that is, regardless of whether it’s 30% or 50% off from today.

Do not use the median to find the bottom, bec. it lags by 2 years, as we are now seeing. While the low end prices softenend in 2004, the median is just this month negative yoy.

Find the bottom by looking for an uptick in prices. A realtor with his feet on the street can tell you when this is happening. Data to check: months of inventory starts decreasing, HAI changes to increased affordability. As soon as months inventory reverses, buy. We are looking for a reversal of a trend. At that time, the median will still be going down, and all your friends will say you’re crazy to buy. Banks will want 20% down, and the REO departments will probably be very busy.

So we need to use the data, but NOT the median, and keep in touch with a good realtor to know when the downturn SHIFTS and reverses. At first sign of reversal, you will get the best price. By the time the median is up, you will be paying 10-20% more than the bottom. This is my own opinion and analysis.

For your survey, put me down for a 50% nominal drop over the next 5-7 years.