Rates need to rise just to reflect risk…lots of defaults lately. Money is actually very cheap right now if you’re a bank. And will probably stay cheap for the banks for quite a while. But the banks just dont trust people anymore, or eachother either.
With homes prices falling, the risk is even greater for the banks. So rates may rise for quite a while on risk alone. Deflation is just starting to crank up. Look for home prices to continue their march down hill.
Oh, forgot to mention unemployment in CA at 7.7% and rising. Also means death to CA RE prices. Looks like a perfect storm brewing. And if you want to really see what’s going to devistate home prices in 2009, check out Mr Mortgage’s website and see his analisys of the next wave of foreclosures coming.

Jim Rogers is proabably correct in the long run, but right now the US$ is gaining and commodities are falling. How long this continues, who knows. But I bet this has another year left in it.