I dont believe the land shortage was a major factor in the price run up either. I just wanted to point out that the land shortage is real and will impact us in the near future. In valuing a stock you look at future earnings. Similarly, looking at real estate values you have to look to the future when analyzing values. Looking at homes in an area where future buildable land is in short supply might not explain the current run up but it could certainly act as a buffer in the next several years to falling prices preventing the 50% drop some believe in and limiting it to 20% or so.