Isn’t raising the funds rate, the “expected response”?
Here’s the take on recession from freemarketnews.com
“Generally speaking, a recession is a prolonged period of time where the economy is contracting. During a recession, you will most likely see consumers spending less money and saving more, a subsequent decline in the stock market, a rise in unemployment, and a decline in real estate prices.
The idea is that the economy has to have periods of contraction after years of expansions.
From 1991 to today our economy has been constantly growing. Some Economists might argue that we did go through a recession in 2001. I disagree. Although we did have some characteristics that were indicative of a recession, we also had some glaring omissions. How can we have a recession that only lasts one quarter, especially after we just came off a major stock market bubble? Why would real estate prices continue to rise in a time of less spending and more saving?
In either case, the recession that is to come will be a multi year recession that will serve to slow down this economy that has been wildly expanding over the last decade and a half.
I see the commodity markets as the premier place to invest during this upcoming recession. Like the recession of the 1970s, I also expect to see rising inflation and soaring commodity prices. Whether you invest in the metals markets, agriculture, or basic raw materials, I believe that positioning your wealth towards commodities will best position you to ride out this housing burst and subsequent recession.”
What I am interested in: is the 1970’s like today? I know that the low global interest rates fueled a liquidity glut that took several years to bring up inflation and it is now happening, and that’s why many central banks are busy raising interest rates. How bad will inflation get? How far will they have to raise?