I’ve been in NZ for over a year. Prices here are falling, but nowhere near as fast as in SoCal. Many people are still in denial here, or, if they have accepted price declines, are clinging to the soft landing/plateau theory. I don’t think things will fall as far as in CA for the reasons the article mentions. Banks don’t lend with less than 20% down, interest rates are around 8%, you actually have to prove your income, and the loans are recourse. I expect to see something like what middle America is experiencing, with 10-20% drops in nominal prices.

The reserve bank governor is surprisingly honest and competent here. He has been among the earliest in calling the price declines.

NZ is already being killed by the unwinding of the carry trade. NZD just hit a 5 year low against the USD, not sure it has much further to fall. The agricultural sector is going gangbusters (NZ is the “Saudi Arabia of milk”) and essentially keeping the country afloat. I don’t think tourism will fall too much thanks to the weakened currency.