A countywide stablization or slight decline in average prices is more than just “statistical noise” if it’s being compared to the former trend of increases. The number isn’t what’s important here, it is the pace at which the trend has changed from a slowing increase to decrease that the economists should be commenting on. Statistical noise aside, you’ll notice it didn’t even flatten out for any length of tme. It went straight from + to -. Every month, more and more market segments are going negative. As this trend continues the countywide averages will decline at a faster pace until the market psychology takes on its own life and perpetuates itself.
As I’ve said before, the passing of July 1st marks the end of the use of yr2005 sales data comparables in SFR appraisals. Since those sales are now all 6+ months old they can no longer considered recent enough to be relevant except possibly as secondary indicators in markets where no recent sales have occurred. That means that appraisers will be forced to use yr2006 sales even though they’re lower, and the resulting appraised values will decline along with the market’s sale prices.
