As I stated there are far fewer Tierrasanta rental SFRs available to rent compared to past years. Previously an average weekend SDUT ad would contain 6-8 sfrs for rent, now maybe only 3-4 (combined UT & CL). These are averages, actual numbers vary seasonally. Combined with the current buyer-seller standoff, low rental inventory will support higher rents for the next ~2 years.

My moderate ~10% r/e median price (clarification:RESALE sfrs) downturn prediction is based on these factors:
– oos boomers retiring to SD area
– ballooning new construction material costs
– general pent up desire to buy (especially bubbleheads!)
– minimal new home construction
– resistance to urban infill densification
– limited cheap land to build on
– demand from natural population increase
– higher rents justifying purchases (in a few years)
– current sellers allowing listings to expire thus reducing inventory, helping to maintain a price “floor” (it’s estimated currently 60% of listings are frivolous)
– exit of flippers from r/e market back to their previous jobs
– exit of investors from r/e market back into stock market
– but mostly because NAR predicts no decline and bubbleheads doom & gloom.

The correction will take years to play out.

The early 90s had defense industry decline with massive SoCal unemployment and r/e median prices declined ~15% in SD and >20% in LA. The early 90s CA economic decline was second only to the great depression!! SD county employment is now diverse so employment hits like the Nokia shutdown (1100?) can easily be absorbed.

A contrarian case for INCREASING house prices: major (world?) war(s) requiring unprecedented defense spending/jobs buildup in SoCal. Pray it doesn’t happen.