This is a very tricky question, one I’ll admit I’m guessing on.

Let’s reflect on guesses that DID work.

Roubini guessed weeks ago that deepening recession will be deflationary and gold will NOT escape downward pricing pressure on commodities.

Also, many good articles (again see Roubini’s website) have been written that the Worlds central banks are supporting the dollar. Gold is kinda the enemy of the dollar, because if gold starts rising and people start dumping dollars then momentum can build against the dollar and for gold. So bankers don’t want higher gold prices. Central banks may be conspiring against gold.

India’s demand for gold fell 70% last month. There are other similar stories. Demand (for jewelry..etc) for gold is falling faster than speculative demand may be rising. However, (GoldTrackes “GLD”) shows increasing demand from investors, no question about that.

Now, recently AS EXPECTED gold has fallen as this recession gets uglier CONFIRMING some of the above

The only thing that could reverse that would be TOTAL CHAOS beyond the levels already seen. I’m guessing that won’t happen.

So HOLD COURSE on keeping my gold holdings to a MINIMUM (currently 25%) and watch for the bottom in gold prices, then LOAD UP ON GOLD at teh bottom of the recession. GUESSING now I think we are going below $800. Will we go below last resitance level of $750/ounce? I have no idea!