The median was rising for the last year because the distribution of homes sold had shifted. The lowest priced properties went flat in 2004, the lower end softened in 2005, but the high end stuff was still selling like hot cakes, driving up the median. Eventually, the rising interest rates and ripple effect of the first time buyers squeezed out worked its way up the tier of homes. Last month, I think we were down year-over-year for the first time.

The median tells you a trend one year after it was established. It doesn’t tell you what’s going on now. Same with the media.

We sold our house in January 2006, at a time when the bubble articles were still in their infancy. The local media was still high on real estate.