I found a graph that has the median in 1989 at about $190K and the median in 1986 at about $160K which amounts to a 16% decline in nominal terms and (of course) a lot more in real terms. Condos got hit a lot harder.

My guess is this time around we’ll decline by 30% or so from peak to trough and I think we’ve already hit the first 10% decline if the stats were correctly reported/adjusted.

As much as I’d like to see things completely implode, there’s a BOATLOAD (many $billions) of well-heeled/institutional investment money sitting on the sidelines waiting for problems in the residential market that will come into that market if prices decline by more than 30% which will put a floor on the decline. It’s shocking how much unlevered liquidity is sloshing around on this planet. That’s the only reason I don’t see 40%-50% declines coming, despite evidence that they probably “should”. Also, history suggests that the uber-bears are almost always wrong, just as the perma-bulls always ending up getting their clock cleaned every few years. In markets, things tend to be “never as good as you hoped, nor as bad as you feared.”