I welcome corrections to my 50% prediction. I got my prediction from the Bubble Primer chart, Per Capita Income/Median Price. This ratio is 64% over the historical average, and needs to fall by 50% to get back to the low point. (200% x 50% = 100%, the trough). If wages go up, the 50% figure will be smaller. But somehow, this ratio must normalize to 100%.

The price drop will be less than 50% if wages rise. Pretty unlikely, but possible.

The price drop will be greater than 50% if wages stay flat and the exotic loan fallout and job loss from RE related jobs feeds on itself, and becomes much worse than anyone expects.

The time to buy a house in SD will be when the front page of media is about the horrors of RE, and no one wants to buy property. This requires discipline and patience, but for me, who loves renting, I don’t care too much how long it takes.