My reason for 50% price drop is the the chart on the piggington Bubble Primer, titled Per Capita Income/Median Price. Where would you pencil in the line from today to 2012?

A 12% foreclosure rate is high. Is it possible? Yes. In recent financial history, except for the Great Depression, we have not had the magnitude of this speculation and excess in lending. The global liquidity bubble and investor demand for high yields created risky loan products. Without the risky loans, prices could not have become so imbalanced. If prices had gone up with people getting 30 yr mortgages, and if wages had kept pace, the current housing prices would be sustainable.

I would like to compliment you on carrying on a debate in a gentlemanly manner. You are setting a good examaple in this regard, and it just goes to show, you can disagree with someone’s ideas, debate their points, and have fun doing it because you are nice about it. I do appreciate your style.