I’m frustrated with the lack of response to posts like this. A thread about listings are worthless to a realtor gets 74 responses, the 50 year mortgage gets 20, and this gets 2. Opinions are welcome too, but I’m really looking for an understanding of what drives the Fed, on what basis they make their decisions. It sounds like no one really knows.

I disagree about your assessment re. gas and spending. Spending is way down. I’ve talked to people who have spoken w/ manager at Poway Starbucks and Poway’s Home Depot employees. Both report business is way down lately, and attribute it to rising gas prices. The trade deficit was narrowed the last 2 months, and if it is the beginning of a trend, can be due to people consuming less. You will see the reduced spending in the retail and restaurant numbers of May, which won’t be released until June or July? I also noticed people don’t fill up at the pump. Check the pump displays next time you fill up. A Suburban for $40, two sedans at $10 and $15. A woman who told me she only gets $20 each time because it’s too long between pay periods and her husband is thinking of rising his bike to work. A bartender who only puts in $25 because she refuses to pay more than that, so she just goes to the gas station more frequently.

The consumer is running out of steam. I wonder why you say they have kept up the spending? What are you seeing this month? Let’s remember any data out there is dated.