Someone I have been following who did very well in the early part of the gold bull market and always has good insights is Paul van Eeden. You can read about him and browse his past, free commentaries at paulvaneeden.com.
Here is an excerpt from a recent commentary:
Why the gold rally will continue
April 2, 2006
Thursday was an interesting day: the US dollar fell sharply against the euro and other European currencies, causing a spike in the gold price. Silver and other metals prices also benefited. US bonds fell, US stocks fell, US interest rate rose and the gold price increased. There it was: the dollar falling with rising interest rates and a rising gold price. Regular readers of these commentaries know we were waiting for this exact scenario. Under these conditions, I expect the gold price to continue to move upwards; even though it never does so in one, smooth, straight line.
The dollar is dropping dramatically. It will bounce soon – it may already be starting a bounce – which will cause a pullback in gold, but it is on its way down hard, so gold and oil will continue to go up.
Obviously the relative value of the USD to the other major world currencies isn’t the only factor effecting the price of gold, but it is definitely one of the biggest over the long term.
