You’re right, only the early adopters can make this strategy work. There aren’t enough rental houses to allow everyone to rent. The early bird gets the worm.
Also, make sure your landlord is not too cash-flow-negative. If he can’t afford to carry his property any longer and needs to sell, you’ll have to move again.
I’m puzzled about your friend’s story regarding the UCLA Anderson Forecast. They’re one of the most respected economists in California.
According to the Los Angeles Business Journal, “The UCLA Anderson Forecast has provided forecasts for the state and national economies for the past 50 years. The forecast predicted both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn and the strength of the state economy’s rebound since 1993”.