I see what you mean. From this figure: http://bp3.blogger.com/_F-Z51q1pTp8/SGndG4kpdxI/AAAAAAAAAGg/TX1NO44Kc6s/s1600-h/sdhpi-0806-2.png
It looks like the four areas that are experience an uptick now, Encinitas/Carlsbad, Clairemon/Linda Vista/MM, CV/4S/Scripps, RB/RP/CMR, were also the four that experienced a slight uptick in the spring of 2007. The uptick was earlier last year, maybe the glut of foreclosures earlier this year postponed this year’s spring bounce.
Interestingly, percentage wise relative to 01/2001 pricing, all the various areas are now at a very similar level. It could be a coincidence, and it’s possible that they will all fall together some more. But it’s also (worryingly) possible that maybe they are all converging to some fundamental value.
From Rich’s historical data, it looks like housing prices were growing 5.5% on average in nominal terms. If that’s applicable in general, and assuming 01/01 to be the last time we had “fair pricing”, then current “fair pricing” should be 1.055^7.5 = 1.49, or 149% of 01/01 price. esmith’s 2nd and 3rd figures make it look like the mid- and low-tiers have fallen very close to 149%, as well as areas like Clairemont/MM.
