One of my children bought their first house a few months ago. They had a lot of the same concerns and worries you have…including that they didn’t want to get priced out.

I have no crystal ball so I couldn’t give them definitive buy or don’t buy advice, but I did point out what history tells us.

The worst-case scenario is that you buy, the housing market tanks, and you lose your job. In this case, you could be under water and trapped in a house that is worth less than you owe and you aren’t able to make the mortgage payment. To protect against this, my position is that:
a) you buy a home you could be happy to live in for 10 years as that is how long the worst of the worst economy tanks lasted
b) you have emergency cash you could access somewhere should you lose your job during a period when you can’t sell your house. That could be a 401K, a relative, something that could tide you over 6 months to a year.

If you have a and b covered and considering that the worst case probably won’t happen, you’re good to go.

Hi Surf, I am having a pandemic baby next month too.

I agree 100% with SDR. Buy RIGHT NOW. Even a 5% increase in the next 4 months is a loss to you of 0.05*800k or $40,000!

You should also seriously see how much higher you can go with your budget. Moving gets harder and harder as you age and should be avoided if you can get a place that’s better. I never thought I’d stay in place for 10 years, but I did. I am happy I got something nice and big back then.

We have submarkets here where inventory is 80% below the lowish levels of 2015-2019, or even at zero listings. When I purchased in Ocean Beach in 2011 there were about 40 detached homes and 30 condos to choose from. Now there’s zero condos on the market and the three “
detached listings are actually one duplex and two teardowns of tiny old beater cottages on big lots.

Something I didn’t realize btw is that as soon as you close, you can reduce your tax withholding to reflect your new mortgage interest deduction. Your take home pay will go up by about $600 per month for this reason.

If you have some particular zip codes in mind, go to sdlookup.com to get some idea of what’s currently available on the resale market, and the pricing.

Also, depending on your location of interest, there are some new communities around town you might want to check out.

The competition for housing is unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetime in San Diego and in many other cities, so you might need some help from a realtor, and, even then, it may be a challege.

Wish you the best!

Unfortunately, I think $1million is probably the entry point for most places that are in demand, whether it’s coastal or RB or Poway or RP…

The difference is what you get with $1million.

Closer to coastal and/or sorrento valley, smaller house, smaller lot… RB bigger house bigger lot higher HOA/mello ruse(sic)… Further north like Carlsbad, bigger house bigger yard, closer to ocean, further away from sorrento valley (may not matter anymore)…

If you’re in a profession that allows for remote work, I’d say commute time doesn’t matter. If I were to do over, I’d probably be in Carlsbad.

If you’re in a profession that still requires in person office, I’d prefer to pick the closer location that doesn’t require a ridiculous commute… Time is money.

FWIW I sold a house down near San Diego Country Club in CV a couple years back. Nice older area with big lots and no HOA. As a buyer Id poke around there

And yes appreciation could easily eat up that rent. Plus if you buy an older home some overlap is nice to get some work done for a month or so and makes for an easy move/transition

Get out there asap and good luck!

.