I tend to be gloom-and-doom oriented, but my predictions are often accurate.
So here’s my prediction on this recession.
Not only will this be a deep and long recession, but the USA will NEVER fully recover from it. This recession coincides (and is driven from) both a a credit cycle bottoming, AND an historic reordering of global economics, plus the end of the Age of Oil. The USA will be the loser in the New World Order, where the 3rd world rises and we fall, and the USA is least prepared for the end of the Age of Oil.
The recession will be global, for example, China’s GDP will be cut at least in half for a year or two; however, it is possible China’s GDP won’t go negative. So one could say I expect significantly lowered growth for China but not necessarily a painful recession. However, I see Asia quickly and fully recovering from this recession.
I think this reordering of global economic and political power could take ten years, but then the typical American will be left stunned at how dramatically our standard of living (and world political power) will have been reduced.
Case-in-point for a Typical American. You own a big SUV. You live in a big McMansion (mortgage underwater) that is a 100 mile commute from your job but in typical American fashion, mass transportation has never been built that can take you where you want to go.
Gas goes to $10/gallon, or it isn’t even available at all.
Even if you don’t lose your job (recession) you’ve got no cost-effective way to get to work. You’re screwed.
Oh, and let’s not forget that the dollar has by then ..say fallen to less than 1/10 of its value today.
So now you go to Walmart, but unfortunately all those made-in-China products are now expensive relative priced in a very weakened dollar.
