taking a quick look, the mortgage delinquency rate nationwide is not as bad as I expected to see:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/12212020_black_knight_first_look.asp

“While delinquencies are still elevated, especially those over 90 days, Black Knight’s “first look” at November data notes a sixth consecutive monthly decline. The national delinquency rate dropped from 6.44 percent in October to 6.33 percent, a -1.75 percent change. It remains 79.20 percent higher year-over-year. The rate has fallen 1.5 percentage points from its peak of 7.8 percent in May but remains a full three percentage points (+93 percent) above pre-pandemic levels”

While not good that it went up this year, those numbers don’t strike me as dire.

“The foreclosure moratoriums put in place at the beginning of the pandemic have kept many negative loan performance metrics at low levels. The foreclosure inventory, loans in process of foreclosure, is down by 2,000 loans since October and 72,000 since the previous November.”

Given that house values are still very high, if people get behind they can always sell.

Howdy – All is well, thanks… just been super busy. I hope to have the Dec 20 stats up this week.

[quote=pluto][quote=svelte]taking a quick look, the mortgage delinquency rate nationwide is not as bad as I expected to see:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/12212020_black_knight_first_look.asp

[/quote]

The statistic isn’t as high because it excludes those in forbearance, i.e. people also not paying their mortgage.
[/quote]

I don’t see that as a big issue either as those folks will be able to make up those payments over time:

“Forbearance doesn’t mean your payments are forgiven or erased. You are still required to repay any missed or reduced payments in the future, which in most cases may be repaid over time. At the end of the forbearance, your servicer will contact you about how the missed payments will be repaid. There may be different programs available.”

https://www.consumerfinance.gov/coronavirus/mortgage-and-housing-assistance/mortgage-relief/

And even if the increased monthly payments are too high, housing values are still high so they can still sell and get out OK in many cases.

[quote=pluto]

If, the people cant pay now and want/need forbearance what means they can pay when forbearance ends? There will be pressure to sell the home. I think it’s likely that will increase inventory, and favor buyers after the forbearance “dust” settles. Then motivated home owners will start flinging comp bombs.

I think the financial pause is just that a pause. Home prices are where they at because there are fewer homes for sale, and some people have to move. Home prices can only be supported by the buyer pool.

San Diego’s buyer pool is affluent and usually financially educated. When they tour a home and see a model match for 30k less, they first ask what’s wrong with the other home? When the answer is nothing, it becomes a will of motivation then a line on where a short sale will be.[/quote]

I’m assuming we can exclude most tech and biotech workers, since they seem to be doing well if not better and are an outlier.

Beyond that, what are the numbers looking like? Has anyone noticed if we’ve seen any pickup of migration from people North of us to down here, now that those workers are most likely working remotely indefinitely? Can’t say for sure, but I thought I’ve seen a few folks recently relocate down here from Bay Area because they think home prices here are cheap(er) and now they can work remotely from here indefinitely…

Ah yes…looks like it’s raining in San Diego real estate….

Dude just got pardoned too!!! LOL.

Into each life a Lil Wayne must fall.