As usual esmith pegged it most correctly. Unfortunately I don’t think we will start to see the effect of what I would generalize as the second wave until mid/late 09 and that should be just the beginning. My generalization would include any and all types of loans that have some sort of recast that were originated from 04 on. We all know these will affect the more desireable areas we all discuss ad nauseum.

However there still should be some decline in nicer areas primarly due to a general negative attitude about real estate, higher interest rates, and increased inventory especially due to foreclosures and short sales. Mostly the inventory will not be great but now and then some nice stuff will show up….

sdduude not sure if we will hit the holy shit period like you are implying… I have been wrong about lots of stuff though. I think in 3 months we could indeed be saying wow what a harsh summer we have had. Also as you know I don’t like to lump the county into one behavioral statement but rather talk about it on a submarket and housing type level…

rbeast at the end of the month I will give some 07 month of June closing comparisons to 08 so we have some numbers to talk about. I will grab the usual suspects, CV, 4S, La Costa, Scripps…and discuss detached homes.