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  • April 14, 2017 at 12:50 AM #22320
    gzz
    Participant

    More than half of the Trump rate bump is now gone. We are still abive the super duper low rates of much of 2016, but we are basically in line with the average for 2015 and below most of 2013-2014.

    April 14, 2017 at 8:27 AM #806272
    spdrun
    Participant

    Good — still nicely above 4% but removes some of the immediate urgency to buy. Hope the Cow and friends keep raising this year, even though we’re overdue for a good, old recessionary opportunity.

    I will add my hopes for the recent flattening and slow fall in stocks. If this ends up being the start of a long decline that will halve the major indices, here’s to it.

    So far, Trump has proven himself to be somewhat bumbling. AHCA: failed. Tax plan: nothing in front of Congress yet.

    I’m pulling for him to be effective at one thing … causing chaos and uncertainty.

    April 14, 2017 at 12:09 PM #806274
    gzz
    Participant

    More like right at 4.0% now for prime borrowers. Down from 4.4%. That decrease means lower payments of like $250/mo for a typical SD home buyer.

    http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/728996.aspx

    The buyer urgency had nothing to do with rates. Only salivating bears thought rates going to, OMG, 2015 levels was an issue. It has to do with the fact that waiting another year means you lose out on 2017’s 10-20% price increases. And even more urgency by the competition for the very limited number of homes.

    April 14, 2017 at 12:44 PM #806275
    spdrun
    Participant

    So psychological pressure causes price increases to build on one another. Sheep following the mantra “buy now! because prices will be higher next year,” causing inventory to plummet and prices to go higher. Till the mania evaporates — should be fun to watch.

    This is literally classic bubble mentality, whether you believe it or not. All it needs is a healthy dose of fear to throw some cold water on it.

    Wonder what will blow up first. The Trump bump in stocks has a long way to fall. So does dot.com 2.0. Kim-Jong Eun in full freakout mode?

    April 14, 2017 at 3:01 PM #806276
    FlyerInHi
    Guest

    The reason money is going to real estate is because there is dearth of investment options, worldwide.

    But yeah, so much for rising rates and dollar debasement/collapse. Trump even said the dollar is too strong, haha

    April 14, 2017 at 3:27 PM #806278
    spdrun
    Participant

    Money will only flow in so long as there’s seen to be sustained upward momentum. Real estate prices in NYC have probably peaked and are now dropping slightly, driven by the high end.

    Why? Part of it is a crackdown in international hot money. The other part is a perception of overvaluation — that continued appreciation isn’t guaranteed.

    The scarcity in San Diego is (again) artificial. It’s being driven by the idea that property can only go up, so buy now or be left out.

    April 14, 2017 at 3:36 PM #806279
    FlyerInHi
    Guest

    [quote=spdrun]Money will only flow in so long as there’s seen to be sustained upward momentum. Real estate prices in NYC have probably peaked and are now dropping slightly, driven by the high end.

    Why? Part of it is a crackdown in international hot money. The other part is a perception of overvaluation — that continued appreciation isn’t guaranteed.

    The scarcity in San Diego is (again) artificial. It’s being driven by the idea that property can only go up, so buy now or be left out.[/quote]

    I agree.

    I also know from reliable sources that rents in San Francisco are dropping.

    Plus foreign buyers who wanted to buy already bought. Foreigners are not gonna to buy in USA unless they know they can get a visa and residency

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