HLS I still use the 10 year as a barometer. Perhaps wrongfully so by your post but I am still stubborn. Using the FFR is ridiculous. However I believe that the 10% differential between now and last year between the 10 year bond and the current 30 year mortgages reflects the added premiums that are now needed to move loans on the secondary market.

Indeed over the past 2 weeks the 10 year has moved and so have 30 year rates. So I guess I would say that it is difficult to predict what a 30 year mortgage will be based on what the 10 year treasury is, but I do still very much believe that in a broad sense 30 year mortgages (rates) move up with the 10 year treasury yield moves up.

I know we have jousted over this before and it is always kind of fun!