I don’t think there is any different tone at all. I would guesstimate that at least 75% of the people who participate in this blog are future homebuyers. I would say that about 95% of the people that read the blog but don’t participate are buyers as well. The fact of the matter is that many people are running into price levels that work for them.
What I have not seen is that there are many people saying or acknowledging a bottom. I would also say that over half of the people that do admit to buying do so come in with a tail tucked between thier legs so they do not get flamed by the more militant bears on the board.
Like it or not there is an inflation concern. Any uber bear who thinks that when rates run up high and prices go down, that he can get into a home without a pile of money for a downpayment is sadly mistaken. I would conservatively estimate that the price offsets may indeed NOT match the interest rate hikes when we really get rolling on inflation. Thus would be bears who are looking for a true bottom are in my opinion segmented into those who have a very nice pile of cash and will do great and those who do not and will in essence be screwed or will have to scale back expectations to a smaller home or condo.
PQ Kid I don’t necessarly believe we are at a peak of foreclosures at all, or if we are then I should say I believe foreclosures in the market I want still will continue to rise and possibly rise substantially. Like any other foreclosure conversation everyone is pretty much dismissing the second wave we will see. Similarly real estate is such a regionalized phenomenah that while macro discussions are important, in the practical sense my purchase decision is confined to a very local market.
People like FLU see advantages of being able to make money by not buying because of investment opportunity. You cannot argue with that. Everyone has different thoughts right? I think I fall in the middle. I think that indeed there is a potential underestimation from uber bears about the effective savings due to interest rates. The effective savings will vary on the individuals pile of cash. By the same token we have a MUCH greater grey area of how this second wave will play out. IF rates are much higher when those other loans recast, than the default rate will skyrocket as well correct? My point is that I don’t think we are at the bottom and I am pretty well positioned to be more affected in a positive manner by rising rates IF the price depreciation gets close to balancing. However that is just me and I try very hard not to project that what is right for me is right for everyone.
Also lost in this thread is the lifestyle difference.
So I don’t think we are at bottom but nor do I think we are at a peak foreclosure point. I don’t think flaming people for buying or throwing sarcastic comments at them is useful. I don’t see many people doing that anyway but I am sure the uber bears shake thier heads and and are unhappy with every new post of a buyer.
