Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Time to Short The Market?
- This topic has 25 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 4 months ago by
ltsddd.
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July 19, 2016 at 9:24 PM #22048July 20, 2016 at 1:48 AM #799742
gzz
ParticipantUltra options like DXD are bundles of options, which means gambles with a house advantage. You might as well just go to a casino.
If you think the market is high, sell some of your long positions and buy bonds.
July 20, 2016 at 6:33 AM #799743ltsddd
ParticipantI am about 60% cash. My stock holdings are mainly in 2 of the big US banks. I think the banks stocks are way undervalued, so I will hang on to these for awhile. That said, I think the market overall is frothy and bound for a correction in the near term. the udow is up by about 30% since the brexit low.
July 20, 2016 at 7:24 AM #799744
CoronitaParticipantI think the markets are going to rally. I think people are going to pull money out of Europe and put it in the U.S. markets. Japan already is.
I’m trying to figure out what other UK companies could be takeover targets, given a weak UK pound and a strong currency like the Japanese Yen.
I think we’ll see more actions like what happened to ARM Holdings over the next few months.
And even here, I think you’ll have folks rebalance their 401k’s such that their international holding is much less.
July 20, 2016 at 7:27 AM #799745The-Shoveler
ParticipantI got to go with flu,
I was just reading an article that said investors are sitting on more cash than in the last 15 years, also they expect real helicopter money from the gov’s of Europe etc.. (ie… checks for everyone!!).
July 20, 2016 at 7:48 AM #799746spdrun
ParticipantOn the other hand, the Euros’ cash holdings in dollar value just took a massive haircut over the last year or so. Yay for a strong dollar!
I’m almost hoping that Trump wins and causes massive chaos through misguided policies. That would be fun to watch and an investment opportunity. But, nah, he’s too hateful against people whom I really love.
July 20, 2016 at 8:49 AM #799747scaredyclassic
Participantmaybe.
July 20, 2016 at 8:58 AM #799749an
ParticipantI’m not as confident jumping in negative 3x ETF like DXD or SDOW just yet. But I did sell all of my bullish 3X ETF position waiting for the right opportunity. I might just wait it out and buy back into the bull side when the tide is right instead of trying to catch both the ups and downs. It’s very possible that the market might run side way for a few days to a week and continue running up again.
July 20, 2016 at 10:35 AM #799750Participantpulled trigger on sqqq
July 20, 2016 at 11:16 AM #799751Escoguy
Participantdo you have a limit for losses?
the up moves so far have been too solid to short,
most bad news rolls over in a few days,
fed is on hold, this is not a normal market
Please limit your losses to 5%
have you done an upside/downside analysis?
July 20, 2016 at 12:19 PM #799754CoronitaParticipantI’m going the opposite direction… Gonna take a chance with Kinder Morgan and Chesapeake Energy, as long. Also bought Micron Tech. and holding AMD until after the earnings. I can digest a $2 drop in AMD stock with my remaining shares, and still come out a little ahead. Looking for a white knight in a probably atrocious earnings call though.
Playball AH today…
July 20, 2016 at 12:54 PM #799755Participant[quote=Escoguy]do you have a limit for losses?
the up moves so far have been too solid to short,
most bad news rolls over in a few days,
fed is on hold, this is not a normal market
Please limit your losses to 5%
have you done an upside/downside analysis?[/quote]
This is strictly a short-term play and I’ll liquidate before the week ended. I don’t hang on ETFs more than a few days at a time regardless whether I am in the black or not.
July 20, 2016 at 12:59 PM #799756Participant[quote=flu]I’m going the opposite direction… Gonna take a chance with Kinder Morgan and Chesapeake Energy, as long. Also bought Micron Tech. and holding AMD until after the earnings. I can digest a $2 drop in AMD stock with my remaining shares, and still come out a little ahead. Looking for a white knight in a probably atrocious earnings call though.
Playball AH today…[/quote]
I am a bit gun-shy about energy stocks. Got pulled into AT due to the high yield and got burned pretty badly. I think AT yield was close to 5%.
July 20, 2016 at 1:29 PM #799757carlsbadworker
ParticipantAccording to Jeremy Grantham, S&P 500 at 2300 will be the bubble territorial and we are not there yet.
So it is hard to say that it will correct just from this level given the Chinese central banks and other FED equivalent around the world are continuing pumping money into the market to prolong the unsustainable appetite for everything from raw material to iPhone in the global market. Just my personal view.
Also, the market overall is pretty cautious at the moment. It is priced high only because the unbelievable amount of cash that are floating around. That’s why you got both S&P 500 reaching new high and the bond market yield testing new low at the same time.
July 20, 2016 at 1:47 PM #799758ParticipantLots of talk about Central banks REAL helicopter money and Fiscal money (not so much from the US fed, but other countries).
My other thought on this is that generally big crashes don’t happen until the little guy(s) are all in.
Most investors are sitting in cash right now.
Anyway IMO.
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