It’s been discussed before. CV and 4S are on a different timeline from everyone else. CV and 4S buyers have low inherent levels of distress. You won’t have high numbers of defaults in there until a) 2004-2005 neg-ams start resetting, or b) prices fall low enough to put large numbers of 2004+ buyers underwater – you need a 20% decline at least. Scenario a) will be realized in late 2009, scenario b) may be realized sooner if supports for CV/4S give up (Mira Mesa, RP, RB) and potential 4S buyers are diverted into RP bargains.

School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.

There’s a price tag on everything. Would you pay $200,000 more to live in a new house? How about $400,000? Would you pay $100,000 to cut your commute by 10 min one way? Would you rather have a new 3000 sf house with 800 sf backyard in 4S ($700,000 purchase price, $300/month mello-roos), or a 30-year-old 1800 sf house with 4000 sf backyard in RP ($450,000 purchase price, no mello-roos)? Are schools in CV so much better than in RP that you can justify buying in CV for double the price?

You can ask the same questions wrt. RP versus Mira Mesa.

Under normal conditions this would set a certain price difference between all communities. If you have a subprime bubble at the low end and it pushes Mira Mesa into 500’s and RP into 600’s, 4S has no choice but to appreciate. If it bursts and Mira Mesa falls back into 300’s, other areas will be dragged in, sooner or later.