I don’t necessarily agree with 100% of your assumptions, but with so many variables I think your forecasts are fairly reasonable, if one were to assume a linear progression of events. We would also have to assume there would be no significant influence from outside governmental policies and the like. It seems unlikely to me that the government will be able to resist the temptation to become involved in some meaningful (if not necessarily productive) way.
Personally I don’t see it playing out to quite the dire level as predicted (i.e., 4.2 yrs), but I think the whole of your research is certainly more sound than anything I’ve seen on any of the major traditional media networks.
With regard to what and when to share, I think you have to decide in your own mind who you and your brand are. You could be the crazy guy with the most dire, absolute worst case scenarios (who will be quickly forgotten once any perception of light is seen at the end of the tunnel). Personally, however, I think you are well positioned to become more established as a credible, research-based (if bearish) RE resource with staying power in any market. I’d choose the latter, and try and avoid excessively specific and unknowable predictions (you might not like my comments, but I think a lot of people without the inclination to research your whole perspective will hear a number like 4.2 yrs and quickly write you off. I’m sure network economists would write this number and formula off as simplistic, which frankly, it is). So maybe national, but trumpet the real issues which you have identified. I think there are a lot of people who need to hear the truth, and CNBC certainly isn’t providing it. Just my $.02, and only because you asked.
So keep up the research, and I at least will keep that salary of stars flowing.
