I don’t think the monitor comment was trivial, it was a nice setup to a hillarious joke. I’ll give you points for addressing the other criticism but you have to admit that the here and now numbers will not continue forever. Just like percentage gains during the rise could not be sustained, planning as if the record foreclosures/dismal sales will be sustained will get someone into similar trouble. What we are likely seeing is the tipping point, rather than a sustainable long term trend, two years from now there won’t be the same level of resets and the majority that needed dramatic price gains and a refi to survive will have been flushed out already. But you are right, there are too many wildcards. The wild claims aside, do you honestly believe we will have 4.2 years of inventory on the market at somepoint in the next two years, I think 2 inventory would be a stretch. Steer clear of wild predictions, take the movie producer’s advice and you just might extend your fifteen minutes of fame.

One last question, where are your numbers about nod/not ratio coming from, Rich posts a not/nod graph about every month and 75-80% ratio let alone 98% is just not there. I track foreclosure.com and the “sheriff sales” (aka back to the bank) is nowhere near those ratios. You may be right, I have just never seet stats put out on it.