Been entering more short positions over the past couple of months as the market’s been rising. While I can’t nail the timing, I think we’re going to see another 35-50% correction (possibly more) by the end of 2017.

My overall investments have not beaten the index, nor are they designed to. I have a 60/40 split – 60% index funds equity. 60% in fixed income – a combo of government bonds, corporate bonds, and a cash position that is mostly in CDs.

It won’t go up as much as the market, but it won’t go down as much, either. The fixed income provides some dampening. My positions in international index and in small cap provide some extra growth potential along with risk.

I am a TERRIBLE stock picker and an even worse market timer. So set and forget with index funds works for me.

I’m curious how you calculate your growth on your 401k? I assume you’re making contributions through the year, so how do you subtract that out? Or do you consider your overall growth – including contributions? Going forward I’ll be able to cleanly see my returns, since my 401k/IRAs are off the table for use for many years.

I had a laptop battery swell recently, but that’s probably not the info you’re looking for.

The S&P just finished 6 consecutive up quarters. That’s the most consecutive up quarters in 14 years. It’s also been trading within a relatively narrow channel for the last 10 quarters, and every time it gets near the top of that channel, it pulls back pretty sharply. For most of this year, it’s been floating in the middle. But it’s approached the top of the channel recently. Near term, the top of that channel is 2,000. (It’s moving at about 25 pts/qtr) And now we’re into another earnings season. Barring any significant earnings surprises, and big world events, I expect that if it hits 2000 in the next couple weeks, it could fall back 100-150 pts pretty quickly. If it doesn’t, it could float in the 1975-1925 range (or slightly lower) for much of the next quarter without a significant pull back, much as it floated mid-channel around 1850 from mid-Feb to mid-May.

All that said, I’m nervous about earnings. I bought a Dec S&P put 6 mos out 10% below current strike as insurance for my long stuff.

I was up on the S&P by a point the 1st half of the year, which was disappointing. I’d love to blame it on having regular work to do the 1st 3 months of the year and not trading near as much, but I can’t. 1st quarter killed, 2nd quarter was almost exactly flat.

(1) QE is being “retired” — June employment numbers are good enough to virtually guarantee tapering through the September Fed meeting when we’ll be down to $15 billion a month.
(2) Middle East is a mess. Ukraine is starting up again.
(3) Margin debt is a pretty good indicator of future events. All it takes is a small correction to start the margin calls a rollin’ in.

Here is my ROR for 2014:

Rate of Return Details
Your Rate of Return (ROR) (Year to Date) 7.66%

It looks like the US economy is on a roll right now:

288k jobs June 2014
Early 2Q GDP approaching 5%
Crude facing downward pressure
Gold in a steady trading range
10 yead bond holding steady @ 2.6

Nothing to see here, move along please.

I’m averaging out about 7% ytd total….