I’ve had the exact same question myself – how many people out there can really afford these homes?
I think to answer your question fairly you have to consider not just CV but basically the number of high-earners or wealthy in the greater SD area. Not all wealthy folks are going to move to CV. There are plenty of other enclaves – even Poway has its share of expensive homes, and frankly they are a lot nicer for the money than a tract home in CV that has 2 feet between the neighbors.
They estimate that ~54,625 households in SD county have incomes > $200k (about 5%; there are about 1,000,000 households). It’s a lot harder to estimate how many people like this are shopping for homes at present. Let’s assume that shopper demographics are the same as the county, so about 5% of shoppers have incomes > $200k. Let’s also assume that 5-8% of all homes turn over in a given year (according to NAR at least – let’s use 6.5%) Then you have about 65,000*(homeownership rate of 61% for SD) = 40,000 households looking to buy/sell for whatever reason, and it is likely about 5% of these have incomes > $200,000, so about 2,000 buyers.
Anyone want to estimate the number of homes for sale county-wide in this buyer range?
Note that traditionally $200k is enough to buy a $600k home, not a $1M home.
