his seems to be pretty in line with the overall case shiller HPI… I will remind folks that the latest CS data is for Feb, while this is all the way through April

To be exact, my numbers are through April, but latest “February” CS data is the average for December thru February, so it really should be called “January”. The way I see it, CS is lagging by 3 months.

My HPI vs Case Shiller:

July 2007 9.0% 8.3%
August 2007 10.6% 9.4%
September 2007 11.8% 11.0%
October 2007 13.4% 13.3%
November 2007 16.3% 16.3%
December 2007 19.5% 19.1%
January 2008 21.9% 21.1%
February 2008 24.9% 24.0%
March 2008 27.2% n/a
April 2008 29.0% n/a
May 2008 30.2% n/a

Also keep in mind that my tiers are geographical and C-S tiers are price based. My theory is that an older 3br in Carsbad or RB is likely to follow the top tier even if its price places it in the middle tier. Conversely, a 5br McMansion in Otay Ranch or Oceanside may be priced high enough to get into high tier, but that does not make it immune. That is the reason why I’m seeing relatively less depreciation in the high tier than C-S.