So nobody wants to guess the peak-to-bottom percent drop.

Chickens!!!

I’ll do it. I would bet that San Marcos will be down about 50% peak-to-bottom when all is said and done, plus or minus 5 percent. That is for apples-to-apples comparisons (ie, owner-occupied sales at peak and bottom….run down foreclosures along the way could obviously go for a much lower figure). Even apples-to-apples could go lower, but I just don’t see it happening.

Right now, in the neighborhood I am most familiar with, prices appear to be down 30-35% from peak which is an astonishing number in itself. There’s more to fall, I’m sure, but I doubt that we’re only halfway down the slide.

With 50% off, a newer home that had sold for $600K in 06 would be going for $300K at bottom. That sounds about right to me. Already, I have seen a model-match of $595 at peak to $400K today. Yikes!

It will sure be interesting to see where we stand one year from now.

PS – and yes DWCAP, if someone is considering buying a house right now, it certainly does matter how much more the market is going to drop, whether that is measured it in percentages or some other concrete method. I don’t consider “on par with rent” concrete since as has been discussed rents may change. Feel free to disagree.