My conclusions are…..drum roll… that it is to early to tell….sorry but I guess they are not so interesting. What I do think is kind of neat though is the spectrum of different behavior through the region.
I think that some of the higher end neighborhoods are mimics of what other neighborhoods did in 2005-2006. That is, nothing reaches a peak then goes down… Places hit a peak and then they kind of sit there… prices stay relatively constant but volume drops… look at 92037 for instance from the stats above… average price is up a little but volume is off… even 92130, same thing. So the more desireable areas that may not exhibit large price drops are showing the volume transition which is the first chink in the armor so to speak.
As far as places like Mira Mesa and Eastlake, I put them in here just to display the dichotomy of regionalized activity. Yes I know everyone here already knows this but it is neat to see in action. As can be seen these regions are farther along as noted by the volume. Price points are hit that do indeed trigger that 6 letter word that Piggs hate… DEMAND… It is to early to call a bottom on areas like these because we do not know the supply chain for these locations. While the NOD rate has not gone up for the past few months it has remained constant and at a VERY HIGH level. Similarly we still may see ALOT of supply come to these same regions over the next two years. Similarly we have not had any secondary phenomenah such as interest rate spikes and/or serious employment issues.
I do believe we have exhausted some of the downward risk in some of these areas. As we have seen posted, in some of these areas we are getting close and even meeting a break even point for investment properties. I would warn people again, don’t project that nobody can afford 20% down for a home. The fact is many people cannot, but out of the population base here in San Diego, many others can.
Remember, just stick to the facts and statistics, don’t speculate as to what other people may or may not have.
