Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › The last decade was a bust?
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The-Shoveler.
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January 31, 2012 at 3:31 AM #19474January 31, 2012 at 6:29 AM #737037
scaredyclassic
ParticipantAll it really means is better stuff at yard sales.
January 31, 2012 at 7:10 AM #737044The-Shoveler
ParticipantI think you need to break that down in years, from about 2002 to 2006 somewhere we were in the housing bubble and definitely parting like it was 1999,
But I am with WW, where are all the bitchin BMW’s and the like used cars, I mean there should be a lot of them somewhere ?
January 31, 2012 at 7:17 AM #737047
CoronitaParticipant[quote=pri_dk]We tend to think of the last decade as the time of the “crash,” but in the bigger picture our little real-estate downturn is completely insignificant.
Over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1AD were produced from 2001 to 2010
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/quantifying-history
Let’s say that again: Nearly a quarter of all economic value produced in recorded history has occurred since the turn of the 21st century.
So have some perspective:
Were were all born in in the right place at the right time.[/quote]
Ya, but most of the stuff was made probably (in chronology): japan, hong kong, taiwan, south korea or mexico, china, vietnam.
January 31, 2012 at 7:56 AM #737051Anonymous
GuestStuff usually doesn’t stay where it was made.
The US should certainly be on that list – still the world’s #1 manufacturer (although China is catching up quickly.)
January 31, 2012 at 8:49 AM #737054Participant[quote=pri_dk]Stuff usually doesn’t stay where it was made.
The US should certainly be on that list – still the world’s #1 manufacturer (although China is catching up quickly.)[/quote]
Well I have said several times the downturn is really just in the real estate related sectors,
If we could get the housing market to get back to a normal market (ie.. not just investors buying REO’s for steep discounts for all cash). Then we would be under 6% unemployment.
If the banks were to loosen up the mortgage market just a little this would be over in a flash.
Makes me think they are just waiting for a signal or something.January 31, 2012 at 11:48 AM #737071Guest[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]If we could get the housing market to get back to a normal market […][/quote]
We will get there, just slowly.
One day things will just be “normal” again, probably long after many have stopped paying attention.
In the meantime the rest of the economy chugs along, faster than many people realize.
January 31, 2012 at 12:00 PM #737072(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=pri_dk]
One day things will just be “normal” again, probably long after many have stopped paying attention.
[/quote]
The operative words here are “one day” because that’s exactly how long it will last. If you look at CA real estate cycles, we tend to spend more time in the extremes than around the averages or normal values for any of the metrics.
So, most likely we will cross through normal one day on our way back up to an overheated market.
January 31, 2012 at 1:23 PM #737086briansd1
Guest[quote=pri_dk]
In the meantime the rest of the economy chugs along, faster than many people realize.[/quote]Yes, GDP is has surpased 2008 levels. That’s why it’s ludicrous for some to say that we are still in recession.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/10/gdp-slightly-above-pre-recession-peak.htmlReal estate values are still down, but other sectors of the economy are chugging along. It’s a good thing that real estate is becoming a smaller portion of the economy.
January 31, 2012 at 2:22 PM #737091markmax33
Guest[quote=briansd1][quote=pri_dk]
In the meantime the rest of the economy chugs along, faster than many people realize.[/quote]Yes, GDP is has surpased 2008 levels. That’s why it’s ludicrous for some to say that we are still in recession.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/10/gdp-slightly-above-pre-recession-peak.htmlReal estate values are still down, but other sectors of the economy are chugging along. It’s a good thing that real estate is becoming a smaller portion of the economy.[/quote]
Subtract the extra debt we have accumulated and the money printed and see where the system is right now.
January 31, 2012 at 4:00 PM #737096
barnaby33ParticipantWell I have said several times the downturn is really just in the real estate related sectors,
If we could get the housing market to get back to a normal market (ie.. not just investors buying REO’s for steep discounts for all cash). Then we would be under 6% unemployment.
If the banks were to loosen up the mortgage market just a little this would be over in a flash.
Makes me think they are just waiting for a signal or something.Really people still say things this silly? Especially on piggington?
JoshJanuary 31, 2012 at 4:25 PM #737101sdrealtor
ParticipantGonna miss you at Family Winemaker in a few weeks or are you going to be back in town?
January 31, 2012 at 4:27 PM #737102ParticipantOK I got the link bookmarked,
Lets check back in a few years.January 31, 2012 at 5:32 PM #737106desmond
Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]OK I got the link bookmarked,
Lets check back in a few years.[/quote]And even if you are remotely right are you going to fire out a post and proclaim victory in a few years………….I love the guys that “called the bottom” with a sentence on a blog as if that is some accomplishment. Embarrassing………….
January 31, 2012 at 6:17 PM #737109ParticipantOh I forgot RE only goes down,
Well if I am right I will be less silly at least.
What I was referring to was that the great recession would be over once the market normalized (mostly at the mid to low end). And we would not be looking at 8-9 % unemployment.
Really it makes no sense to require 20% down payments right now, it did in 2003-2006 but not now. -
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