Another one bites the dust… – Piggington's Econo-Almanac

This topic has 16 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 13 years ago by evolusd.

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December 9, 2011 at 4:05 PM #19344

evolusd
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Well, after all my bearish ranting to anyone I encountered over the past 7 years, I finally gave in and closed on a new DR Horton home in community of Altaire in San Elijo Hills.

Primary motivators were wife and kids who wanted a stable home in a great school system. I’m convinced there will be flat or slight depreciation in real terms over the next 3-5 years, but have hope that I’ll look back in 10-15 years and feel good about the decision. Rich’s data and other smart Piggs seem to have the same opinion, which gives me comfort. Locked a high-balance conforming at 4.5% no cost and the seller paid off my PMI and mello roos, along with generous other incentives.

A special thanks to sdrealtor who took time to show us a few homes in the south Carlsbad area prior to our decision to buy in SEH. He knows that north county market inside and out – huge recommendation for him if you’re in the market to buy or sell.

I’m going to try to ignore housing articles for a while, so forgive me if I disappear! 🙂

Thanks for all your insight over the years – it has truly been invaluable.

December 9, 2011 at 4:29 PM #734408

recordsclerk
Participant

Congrats. I hope you enjoy your new home. I’ve always liked SEH. I might be joining you soon, we’re waiting for approval from the second lien holder on a short sale.

December 9, 2011 at 5:27 PM #734414

sdrealtor
Participant

Congrats and whatever happens from here know you missed the worst of the declines and got a great house that hit pretty much every item you wanted. Really..what more could you want?

December 9, 2011 at 8:55 PM #734423

CA renter
Participant

Awesome news, evolusd! 🙂

Congratulations on your new house. May you and your family enjoy many happy years there.

December 10, 2011 at 9:13 AM #734446

davelj
Participant

On the subject of “giving in” and buying a home the Piggs may receive similar news from another long-standing Pigg bear very soon… but I don’t want to spoil the surprise, betray confidences, or jinx the transaction. Let the speculating begin!

P.S. Congrats evolusd and sdrealtor.

December 10, 2011 at 9:15 AM #734447

svelte
Participant

Hey, that’s great news! You made a very wise choice – rest easy and enjoy.

December 10, 2011 at 9:26 AM #734449

The-Shoveler
Participant

Nice Congrats,
Always liked that area but did not like the high HOA and MR in most of the SEH

December 10, 2011 at 9:38 AM #734450

CafeMoto
Participant

thumbs up: happy for you

December 10, 2011 at 1:40 PM #734465

UCGal
Participant

Congratulations

December 10, 2011 at 7:37 PM #734474

bubba99
Participant

Congratulations. I hope you and your family enjoy your new home.

If the “Exploding Inflation” thinkers are right, the mortgage will disappear quickly. And if not, you now have a home that the wife likes, and has good schools, and is still for a lot of us, the American dream.

December 10, 2011 at 11:08 PM #734478

CA renter
Participant

[quote=davelj]On the subject of “giving in” and buying a home the Piggs may receive similar news from another long-standing Pigg bear very soon… but I don’t want to spoil the surprise, betray confidences, or jinx the transaction. Let the speculating begin!

P.S. Congrats evolusd and sdrealtor.[/quote]

Are there any bubble-sitters left at this point?

It seems like about 95% of the Piggs have bought already. Does that mean that the bubble is over and done with, or is it a sign of bear capitulation? 😉

December 11, 2011 at 3:36 PM #734490

davelj
Participant

[quote=CA renter][quote=davelj]On the subject of “giving in” and buying a home the Piggs may receive similar news from another long-standing Pigg bear very soon… but I don’t want to spoil the surprise, betray confidences, or jinx the transaction. Let the speculating begin!

P.S. Congrats evolusd and sdrealtor.[/quote]

Are there any bubble-sitters left at this point?

It seems like about 95% of the Piggs have bought already. Does that mean that the bubble is over and done with, or is it a sign of bear capitulation? ;)[/quote]

Yes, a lot of Piggs have bought and there aren’t a lot of bubble-sitters left. 95%? No idea.

The bubble is definitely over and done with… but that’s not your question. I think your question is whether there’s going to be an over-correction to the downside and I have no idea about that. If interest rates remain low, I doubt it. Right now the typical house is “reasonably priced” – whether things go meaningfully lower from here… who knows…

In the meantime, we muddle along…

December 12, 2011 at 7:51 AM #734500

scaredyclassic
Participant

Speaking for myself, generally I capitulate.

Still bearish in general.

However I am bullish on my own growth. I think I will see 15 percent body mass growth in 2012. Lower growth thereafter.

December 12, 2011 at 8:45 AM #734502

NotCranky
Participant

[quote=CA renter][quote=davelj]On the subject of “giving in” and buying a home the Piggs may receive similar news from another long-standing Pigg bear very soon… but I don’t want to spoil the surprise, betray confidences, or jinx the transaction. Let the speculating begin!

P.S. Congrats evolusd and sdrealtor.[/quote]

Are there any bubble-sitters left at this point?

It seems like about 95% of the Piggs have bought already. Does that mean that the bubble is over and done with, or is it a sign of bear capitulation? ;)[/quote]

The often proclaimed 2009 “bottom” ( possible approximate bottom) came way sooner than the pigg consensus from early on. Prices now are about where most of us thought they would more or less settle. I probably would buy, or would have bought by now, if I had been sitting it out and had pretty good idea of being able to pay the bills going forward.

December 12, 2011 at 11:48 AM #734507

sdduuuude
Participant

[quote=CA renter]
Are there any bubble-sitters left at this point?

[/quote]

I’m not buying my move-up property until Rich starts the “Why is real-estate so damn cheap ?” blog providing news and insight into the “Housing Trough”
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