Nicole good for you for running the numbers!!! It is actually pretty interesting to see the variations isn’t it? Okay some other stuff… Remember on the sale of the home you need to compensate another 5-6% to cover sales costs when you do sell it so don’t forget about that.
At any rate the spread sheet is a nice method that you can use to not necessarly predict the exact year of when you will break even again, but at least make a best and worst case scenario to give you a range.
Also one other thing… Once more if you really love the home, then NOT getting the home simply because you missed it by a few thousand dollars will really irk you. See Raptorducks posting… That said, I do believe that the market up there will continue to decline and that in the future you will have ample opportunity as more homes become distressed. I say this without having run any analysis of the home you are looking at.
Finally Jim and sdrealtor brought up very good points and both of them are very astute with regards to that particular submarket.