It is starting to seem to me that you dont want to hear the answer that will be given here. You keep asking the same question, ignoring the answers given, and then keep asking to be proven wrong. If you dont want to hear the answer, dont ask. If you have become emotionally involved in this house, or want to own again, then admit it and move on.
2nd, the economy is slowing, even the federal reserve just published their growing fears about it. Slowing economy means slowing jobs and incomes and that isnt good for housing. Even if housing is on par with rent, which it isnt close, 1997 era shows that a premium on flexablilty and limited liability can be observed in the housing market. As such, housing isnt turning around until jobs/incomes do.
3rd, inflation is picking up. Recient interest rate cuts have not been observed in inflation readings, and the numbers all seem strangly low. Inflation without wage inflation hurts housing prices.
4th, 5-6 months of inventory is considered healthy. More than 7 is unhealthy. Poway currently has 8-9 months. Foreclosures and short sales are killing the market, leading prices down. Until this stops, it is accelerating not stoping, prices will continue to fall.
5th, sales are off by more that 1/3. This is a huge number and will lead to longer times on the market and more reductions necessary to move.
6th, locations around Poway are experiencing the same if not more pronounced problems. Poway, PQ, RB, MM, Esco, and Clairmont are all in the same market. Poway cant bottom and hold until the locations around it do as well. These competing locations are still falling, and Poway will too.
There, 6 reasons why you are wrong to think this is anything more than normal spring activity. Look at the charts, activity ALWAYS picks up in March and April and this year is pathetic but no differnt. If you dont like these reasons you wont like ANY reasons and should just go out and offer 110% of full price on that house you want so badly. That will give it to you for sure. If you really think the market is at bottom, why are you low balling? It is only up from here right?
