“So far I have been spot on in my area though I readily admit that I missed the steep and fast decline in the outlying areas like Escondido and Chula Vista.”

So far, but the credit / lending mess is not anywhere near over. The FDIC is beefing up staff to deal with 150 bank failures in the next two years. That will leave a mark on the economy.

Missing Escondido and Chula Vista is pretty bad IMHO. That is enough to impugn your credibility in my eyes. Those two areas were some of the most overbuilt and risky areas in SD and was often singled out by the residen housing bears. How you could miss on those two and yet claim to be an expert is beyond me.