Josh,
Your evidence was my point exactly. Sales are way down along the NCC. One significant factor is the credit market. As credit markets loosen up things will change. I dont believe that can be disputed.

What can be disputed is how much and when. Wasn’t that my question to begin with?

sdr

FWIW: I just checked the sale of homes I described above (at least 2400 sq ft, at least 4BR and built after 1990 in South Carlsbad but Enc/San Dieg school district). This may seem like a narrow definition but those3 who know the area understand what a sweet spot it is. I searched up to 900K to allow for the decline in prices of homes sold last year that would now sell at 850K or less this year. Prices are defintely down 5 to 10% but volume for the 1st qtr is 5 sales this year vs. 6 sales last year.