I dont follow the nicest areas of SD (CV,4S,RSF) mostly cause I have no interest in living there right now. Maybe when I am 45 or somthing, but seeing how that is well over a decade away, I wont worry about it.
I do however follow some of the middle to lower middle income areas (MM,Clarmt,poway) as this is where I would like to move and could in theory afford. As these places have dropped, that theory has turned better and better. I dont plan on buying for a while as I am still a single male in his late 20’s. I can wait for 2010, Hell, I WANT to wait till then.
I never understand people aversion to renting on this board. “Pride of Ownership” yada yada… I take pride in who I am and the positive I bring to those I care about. My house is shelter to me and does not come with a certificate of self worth. I drive a nearly 10 year old truck, for the same reason. It is paid, and gets me where I am going no slower or faster than your brand new car, but is a hell of alot cheaper.
Haveing had my little rant, I just want to question part of the origional posters letter. It states that the agent has shown nearly 30 properties in 2 weeks, all around 300k. Now this is more my price point than alot of people on this boards, so I read really carefully. It says that all 3 that they wanted to write offers on had multiple other offers and all above list. What about the other 27? You are telling me that 1/10th of the properties out there are priced correctly, and that 9/10ths are not? I am suppose to rush out and buy now cause of that?????? I know the suggestion is that all 30 have good offers, but if that was true why are sales so slow and inventory so high? No, it is alot more likey that 30 buyers are competing for the 3 well priced units, than 30 units have 3 buyers each.
Also, just cause there is an offer doesnt mean jack. I follow MM the closest, and nearly weekly I see houses go off the market with an offer just to come back on a few days later. There are still alot of people who want a house, and even more who lissen to this drivel spewed out in this kinda letter, but that doesnt mean they CAN buy. And just cause someone can buy, doesnt mean they want to buy THAT one. My response to the whole “foreign buyers” argument is that there are no oil sheiks being priced outa Santee or Oceanside. People would sell if they could, but they need someone who wants to buy and has $$$$. Not many people like that around.
Add into it all that this is suppose to be the busyist time of the year. Offers written in March become April and May’s sales. That is the time of year alot of people buy, so there should be buyers out there now. So what if sales inched up .5% from March to April? THAT IS NORMAL, not a sign of the bottom. Hell in reality that isnt normal, it shoulda gone up 5%. (I am making up my numbers, just for illistration). I know that when things are a factor of 10 off of normal, it isnt a healthy market. So I have no reason to worry. The real price drops will be in the fall and winter anyways, as even fewer buyers will be in the market then, and considering that repo’s are still rising, the inventory will be there in droves.
Also, I dont worry about Year of year stuff any more than understanding normal season variation. Sales are so slow now, that next year they will not be falling anymore. 2007 was not a good year for real estate. Why then when sales rise .00001% over last year, which was one of the worst on record, are we gonna call it an improving market?
And just one extra side note, the third quarter of 2008 is only 3 months away. Isnt that when we are suppose to be seeing our economy get better and sales rebound as repos drop? 13 weeks, and seeing is believeing. (My bet is the Q3 2008 rebound will more closely resemble the Q3 2007 rebound we heard all about. Oh wait, what happened in Q3 2007?????)
